The “cold and hot” phenomenon in manufacturing and non-manufacturing continues.
China’s manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) for June 30, 2019 was released by the national bureau of statistics on the morning of June 30, 2019.The PMI came in at 49.4 per cent in June, unchanged from the previous month, the data showed.
The national business daily noted that this month’s manufacturing PMI is the second consecutive month under the 50% growth or contraction line since may this year.
Meanwhile, non-manufacturing activity continued to heat up this month.According to data released in the same period, the business activity index of non-manufacturing industry was 54.2% in June, 0.1 percentage point lower than that of the previous month, maintaining a relatively high business interval of more than 54.0% for six consecutive months, indicating that the overall non-manufacturing industry has maintained a steady development trend.
It will take time for manufacturing to pick up
Why this month’s PMI data continue to linger below the boom-bust line?The national business daily noted that a prominent feature of this month’s data was a marked decline in the PMI of large enterprises.This has been a drag on the overall PMI performance.
The data showed that the PMI for large enterprises was 49.9%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month and slightly below the critical point.At the same time, although the PMI of small and medium-sized enterprises rose somewhat compared with last month, it still did not break the line of expansion and contraction and entered the business range.The PMI for small businesses and small businesses in mid-june came in at 49.1 percent and 48.3 percent, up 0.3 and 0.5 percentage points respectively from the previous month and below the critical point, the data showed.
Yang chang, head of the policy group at zhongtai securities research institute, said in an interview with the national business daily that the PMI for large enterprises was 49.9 percent in June, falling back below the boom line again.The pmis of small and medium-sized enterprises were all below the boom line, with the pmis of medium-sized enterprises rising 0.3 percentage points from the previous month.The PMI for small businesses rose 0.5 percentage point from the previous month, while the pace of contraction for small and medium-sized enterprises slowed slightly.
However, he also pointed out that from historical observation, large enterprises fall below the line sustainability is not strong, only in August 2012, August 2015, February 2016 three times a month to fall below the line, the next month will rise to the online.
Li chao, chief macro analyst at huatai securities, told reporters that this month’s PMI data showed current employment pressure.Combining the data, he noted that the manufacturing and non-manufacturing employment indices both fell 0.1 percentage point to 46.9 percent and 48.2 percent respectively in June, with the manufacturing employment indices already at historic lows.
He explained that this year’s employment priority policy continues to work, and the employment situation may become an important policy bottom line.
Production has generally been expanding
At the same time, the national business daily also noted that the PMI data showed some clear signs of improvement.
Zhao qinghe, a senior statistician at the service industry survey center of the national bureau of statistics, explained that the data can reflect the overall expansion of production and continued industrial transformation and upgrading.The production index was 51.3 percent, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, but still in an expanding range.Among the 21 industries surveyed, the production indexes of 13 industries are in the expansion range, and the production indexes of pharmaceutical, railway, shipping, aerospace equipment, computer, communication and electronic equipment and other manufacturing industries are in the higher prosperity range of more than 54.0%.
From key industries, high-tech manufacturing, equipment manufacturing industry and consumer goods industry production index was 55.6%, 53.3% and 52.2%, from increased, and higher than the overall manufacturing 4.3, 2.0 and 0.9% respectively, the boom of production rendering are show that in the current complex economic environment, transformation and upgrading of manufacturing continue to push forward, in the high-end manufacturing and consumer goods manufacturing industry in promoting effect on economic growth.
In addition, zhao qinghe also pointed out that the performance of the non-manufacturing sector, which has been operating in a high range for a long time, is likely to be stronger in the future.He pointed out that from the perspective of market expectations, companies are relatively optimistic about the market development in the near future. The service sector business activity forecast index was 60.3 percent, up 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, and all the 21 industries surveyed were in the expansion range.Among them, the business activity expectation index of retail, railway transportation, air transportation, catering, culture, sports and entertainment and other industries is higher than 62.0%, indicating that with the approaching of summer vacation, the industries related to summer vacation consumption are more optimistic about the recent market development.
National business daily also found that a series of pilot data released earlier showed the resilience and potential of the current manufacturing industry.On June 27, the national bureau of statistics announced the profits of industrial enterprises above the designated size.Data showed that the profit growth of industrial enterprises above the national scale in May ended the temporary dip into negative territory last month (down 3.7 per cent year-on-year in April) and turned positive again in March.
Post time: Jul-02-2019